![]() Short-term risks are in the news every day and are certainly important. Note that there are some concerns, like AI’s effects on employment, that don’t fit neatly in one bucket and probably take on a different form in each time period. Left unchecked, highly autonomous, intelligent systems could also be misused or simply make catastrophic mistakes. There is a spectrum of problems we could face related to this, at the extreme end of which is concerns about whether a sufficiently powerful AI, without appropriate safeguards, could be a threat to humanity as a whole – referred to as existential risk. At present, most AI systems are passive and merely converse with users, but as AI systems gain more and more autonomy and ability to directly manipulate the external world, we may face increasing challenges in controlling them. Long-term risks relate to where AI is ultimately going.This rapid growth in science and engineering skills could also change the balance of power between nations. In that time period, Anthropic’s projections suggest that AI systems may become much better at science and engineering, to the point where they could be misused to cause large-scale destruction, particularly in the domain of biology. Medium-term risks are those we will face in two to three years.This includes concerns like privacy, copyright issues, bias and fairness in the model’s outputs, factual accuracy, and the potential to generate misinformation or propaganda. Short-term risks are those present in current AI systems or that imminently will be present.With the fast pace of progress in mind, we can think of AI risks as falling into three buckets: See Dario's Senate testimony from two months ago: Anyway, I think the question is still the size of the minority share that Amazon bought (which has not been made public AFAICT) as that should determine Anthropic's market cap. So the rise in valuation of the Anthropic stake is certainly a decent fraction of that, though I'd be surprised if it's now valuable enough to cover the entire gap.Įdit 2: the math is not quite as simple as I made it seem above, and I've struck out the word "should" to reflect that. So the $500M stake reportedly held by FTX should might be worth around double whatever it was worth in June, and possibly quite a bit more.Įdit: this article suggests the FTX asset/liability gap was about $2B as of June. Anthropic was worth $4.6B in June according to this article. Which implies Anthropic has a post-money valuation of at least $8B. I've lost track of the gap between assets and liabilities at FTX, but this is a $4B investment for a minority stake, according to news reports. ![]() I am curious if the FTX stake in Anthropic is now valuable enough to plausibly bail out FTX? Or at least put a dent in the amount owed to customers who were scammed?
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